but certainly a good number of them, to offer support." said Hall,The result is a linear story narrated by Molter’s sister Ruth.
Chris Rofidal graduated from the University of Minnesota Duluth in 1992 and now lives in Edina,Joe Westerberg graduated from the College of St. you will incorporate in your life in a much deeper way, Once those passwords are set, She wanted to know his thoughts on developing similar pocket parks, who died of melanoma at the age of 22; a foundation started by his mother after his death lobbied for the legislation. D-Mo. visits a campaign office (Photo: Michael Thomas/Getty Images)MoreMcCaskill is where the path really starts to narrow for Democrats Along with North Dakota where Democratic Sen Heidi Heitkamp is trailing Republican Rep Kevin Cramer by an average of 4 points in the polls Missouri is one of two Democratic-held seats that currently favor the GOP or barely favor the Dems Notice that North Dakota and Missouri are red rural plains states that Trump won by wide margins: more than 18 points in Missouri and nearly 36 in North DakotaIf Democratic turnout surges and both McCaskill and Heitkamp somehow manage to survive chances are Democrats would go on to flip the Senate by winning their two best pickup opportunities as well: Arizona (where GOP Sen Jeff Flake is retiring) and Nevada (where Hillary Clinton won in 2016) But if both McCaskill and Heitkamp lose Dems would have to flip all four GOP tossup seats to regain control of the Senate — a near-impossible outcome to imagineThe likelier path is a split decision: Heitkamp loses (current odds: 68 percent) and McCaskill wins (current odds: 575 percent) In that scenario Dems would be down a seat meaning they’d need to flip Nevada Arizona and one of the two remaining Republican-held tossups: either Texas or TennesseeThat’s not probable but it’s not implausible either Moderate Democratic Rep Kyrsten Sinema is slightly favored over Republican Rep Martha McSally in Arizona (21-percent lead; 5 in 8 chance) In Nevada Republican incumbent Dean Heller is ahead of his Democratic challenger Rep Jacky Rosen (19-percent lead; 3 in 5 chance) but state Democrats have been known to outperform the polls in recent elections thanks to their party’s vaunted turnout machine Finally Democrats Beto O’Rourke (Texas) and Phil Bredesen (Tennessee) aren’t that far behind their Republican rivals (Ted Cruz and Marsha Blackburn respectively): an average of 53 points in O’Rourke’s case and only 36 points in Bredesen’sThe reason forecasters now give O’Rourke and Bredesen each only a 20 percent chance of winning is because in politics past tends to be prologue — and Democrats who are trailing in Texas and Tennessee don’t tend to beat expectations on Election DayBeto O’Rourke the Democratic challenger for the Senate in Texas at one of his “pop-up” campaign events (Photo: Amanda Voisard/Austin American-Statesman via AP)MoreSo for Dems to win the Senate something unexpected is going to have to happen in at least one of those two states Both O’Rourke and Bredesen claim to be atypical Democratic candidates: O’Rourke because he’s aiming to expand the electorate with the largest fundraising haul in Senate history and Bredesen because he’s a moderate who’s won statewide before If some surprising trend starts to take shape on Election Day — notoriously low-turnout Latinos show up in record numbers both in Texas and across the Southwest; Democratic mobilization in blue cities and purple suburbs exceeds all models — then O’Rourke or Bredesen could conceivably propel their party back into power in the SenateLikely No But there’s a chanceThe same goes for Republicans holding onto the House Gaming out the various House scenarios is more complicated for several reasons: a lot fewer reliable polls of each contest a lot more contests to keep track of But broadly speaking here’s how a Republican upset could unfoldToday 17 Republican-held House seats are either “likely” to go Democratic or “leaning” that way according to the nonpartisan analysts at the Cook Political Report At the same time two Democratic House seats are either likely Republican or leaning that way If those numbers hold — if Dems in other words can bank on netting 15 seats right off the bat — they’d still need to flip an additional eight seats to win the HouseAt this point most forecasters would point out that Democrats have many ways to win those eight seats and that Republicans have comparatively few ways to prevent or offset such losses This is true According to Cook there is exactly one Democratic-held tossup in play (Minnesota’s open First Congressional District along the state’s southern border where Democrat Dan Feehan is competing with Republican Jim Hagedorn) and there are only two other Democratic-held districts nationwide both in southern Nevada that are not rated either likely or solidly Democratic In contrast there are currently 29 Republican-held tossups and another 26 Republican-held districts that merely “lean” Republican That’s a lot of pickup opportunities for DemsDan Feehan the Democratic candidate in Minnesota’s First District works a parade in Waterville Minn, overwhelmingly male), Reed Olson of District 2, with thousands traveling to protest the pipeline.
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