Tag: 419SH龙凤

  • March Madness Crib Notes For Sundays Games

    West RegionalIN BRIEFGame to watch: No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Oregon (87.3) at 7:45 p.m. EDT on TruTVIN DEPTHWisconsin (87 percent) vs. OregonPlayer to watch: Frank Kaminsky, WisconsinOregon’s offense — far and away the strength of the team — came to the rescue against Oklahoma State in the round of 64 as the Ducks shot 55 percent from the floor to outgun the Cowboys in a 79-73 win. But securing enough stops to beat Wisconsin might be a struggle for the defensively challenged Ducks. According to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, Wisconsin easily owns the best offense in the country, a unit primed to take advantage of Oregon’s weak shot defense and inability to force turnovers. The Ducks also lack the risky traits that sometimes help heavy underdogs chance their way into upsets. But one path the Ducks might navigate to victory is to force the tempo and make the Badgers play at their pace. Oregon had the 33rd-fastest offense in the country this season (as measured by seconds per possession), while Wisconsin had the third-slowest. While Saturday’s top-billed matchups (specifically, Arizona-Ohio State and Kentucky-Cincinnati) looked sexier on paper than any in store on Sunday, day No. 2 of the round of 32 offers some solid games of its own — as well as fewer sleepers. Keep a particular eye on the trio of 2-versus-7 matchups, each of which should be reasonably competitive by the standards of this round.Here’s what else to look for:South RegionalGame to watch: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 8 San Diego State (a harmonic mean of 88.0) at 2:40 p.m. EDT on CBSUpset alert! No. 7 Iowa (27 percent win probability) vs. No. 2 Gonzaga at 7:10 p.m. EDT on TBSIN DEPTHDuke (85 percent win probability) vs. San Diego StatePlayer to watch: Jahlil Okafor, DukeAfter taking care of Robert Morris with ease in its opener, Duke moves on to face the slow-paced, defensively focused Aztecs. San Diego State has a tall team that ranks among the nation’s best at limiting opponents’ shooting efficiency and keeping them from getting to the line. But watch for Duke’s offensive rebounding (spearheaded by All-Everything center Jahlil Okafor) to offset some of SDSU’s defensive advantage. And when the Aztecs have the ball, scoring might be an ordeal. Neither of San Diego State’s two go-to guys on offense — Winston Shepard and Dwayne Polee — could even match the Division I average for efficiency when they ended an Aztec possession, a trend that figures to continue against a solid Blue Devils defense. East RegionalIN BRIEFGame to watch: No. 2 Virginia vs. No. 7 Michigan State (89.5) at 12:10 p.m. EDT on CBSUpset alert! No. 5 Northern Iowa (55 percent) vs. No. 4 Louisville at 9:40 p.m. EDT on TBSIN DEPTHVirginia (72 percent) vs. Michigan StatePlayer to watch: Anthony Gill, VirginiaVirginia didn’t exactly look dominant against a stubborn Belmont team Friday, and now the Cavaliers must face an even tougher opponent in Michigan State. The Spartans have the talent to stick with Virginia — they’d have a 37 percent chance of the upset here if we based our prediction on preseason ratings alone — and their coach is familiar with deep tournament runs. Plus, Virginia operates its offense at a veritable crawl, slowing down the game and inviting the kind of variance that can prove deadly for a favorite. But other than their snail-like pace, the Cavaliers play a sturdy style as upset-proof as any, relying primarily on two-point shooting, ball security, rebounding, and an old-fashioned big, tough interior defense. It all makes for a team with few clear weaknesses, something Michigan State will likely learn the hard way.Check out FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness predictions. Midwest RegionalIN BRIEFGame to watch: No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 7 Wichita State (87.6) at 5:15 p.m. EDT on CBSUpset alert! No. 5 West Virginia (55 percent) vs. No. 4 Maryland at 8:40 p.m. EDT on TNTIN DEPTHKansas (57 percent) vs. Wichita StatePlayer to watch: Fred VanVleet, Wichita StateWichita State’s offense clicked in the second half of its victory over Indiana on Friday, but the points may not come as easily against a strong Kansas defense that ranks ninth nationally in Ken Pomeroy’s schedule-adjusted ratings. The game may come down to whether Wichita State can execute its pick-and-roll — according to Synergy Sports, the Shockers’ pick-and-roll ball-handling efficiency ranked in the 93rd percentile of Division I schools; the Jayhawks’ defense was in the 85th percentile at stopping the play. At the other end, it’s worth watching whether the more interior-focused Kansas offense can adapt to take advantage of a Wichita State defense that dares opponents to move the ball around and shoot from the outside. read more

  • Women Get Equal Pay But Not Equal Billing At Wimbledon

    WOMEN’S SHARE OF MATCHESTIME Wimbledon’s scheduling isn’t just a matter of gender equality. It’s also about logistics. The scheduling can backfire on men. They don’t want to have to change courts mid-match or, worse, finish a match on what should be their day off. That’s more likely when they’re playing the second men’s match in a day on a court without lights, since as we’ve seen, men’s matches, on average, are longer than women’s. On three successive days of play this year, the second men’s match on No. 1 Court went five sets and had to be suspended or moved because of darkness.No. 1 Serena Williams and former No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki criticized the scheduling in media conferences here. “The women really haven’t gotten the opportunity here to play on the big courts,” Wozniacki said. She pointed out that on most days this year when men and women were both playing, No. 1 Court and Centre Court each had only one women’s match. (Men were less critical: Roger Federer said of the schedulers, “of course, they would try to be fair,” and Gilles Simon said, “I don’t see any big problems about the scheduling.”)Williams and Wozniacki have less to complain about than some of their peers, though: On days when she was competing with men for court time, Williams was on Centre for three of her four matches and on No. 1 for the other one. Wozniacki got one match on each of the two big courts.Yet former No. 1 Victoria Azarenka, who has two major titles to Wozniacki’s none, didn’t get on the two biggest courts in any of her first four matches. Neither did Lucie Safarova, the sixth-ranked woman and French Open finalist, in her four singles matches. Serena Williams’s sister Venus Williams, a five-time champ here, played three matches off the big two courts before finally getting to Centre — against Serena.A spokesman for the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, which hosts and runs Wimbledon, declined to comment beyond providing the club’s general position on order of play. “The major marquee players will normally be scheduled on the stadium courts with Centre Court and then No.1 Court seeing the leading names,” the club said in the statement. “This is expected by both the paying public and TV audiences alike.”Without further comment, it’s hard to know how the club determines who the major marquee players are.One factor I thought might have driven the unbalanced scheduling is the high-profile upsets in the women’s tournament, which might have left fewer marquee women available to feature.I checked, and that doesn’t seem to be the case, at least using several possible definitions of “marquee players.” Nine women who’d won Grand Slam titles (with a combined 41 major titles, 13 of them at Wimbledon) competed in singles at Wimbledon, compared with seven men with Grand Slam victories (46 majors, 13 of them at Wimbledon). The women major winners had 27 matches through this Monday. Their male counterparts had just 23 matches. Just 44 percent of these marquee women’s matches made it onto Centre or No. 1 — barely half the proportion of the men’s matches, with 87 percent. Add in former No. 1s and top 10 seeds, and the picture is even worse: The top women made it onto the top two courts 35 percent of the time, while the top men did 74 percent of the time.Simon and other male players have argued that women should get less prize money than men because, according to them, the men’s game is more popular than the women’s. With Wimbledon’s scheduling this year, the women have had half the opportunity to gain an audience and a fan base. Australian Open54%42% French Open4939 Wimbledon3828 U.S. Open5242 LONDON — It wasn’t until 2007 that Wimbledon became the last of the four tennis Grand Slams to award equal prize money to women and men. Women are still waiting on equal playing time in the tournament’s biggest stadiums.At Wimbledon this year, women got just 38 percent of the assignments to Centre Court and No. 1 Court (which is, confusingly, the second-biggest court) through Monday, including just 39 percent on Centre Court. That rate is different from the other Grand Slams. At the most recent editions of the Australian Open, French Open and U.S. Open, schedulers maintained balance between men’s and women’s singles on prime courts, at least by number of matches. At each event, when they were competing with men for prime court assignments, the women got between 49 percent and 54 percent of matches on the top two courts — including at least half the matches on the biggest court.1The gory details for this analysis: Along with Centre Court and No. 1 Court at Wimbledon, I used Rod Laver Arena and Hisense Arena for the Australian Open, Court Philippe Chatrier and Court Suzanne-Lenglen at the French Open, and Arthur Ashe Stadium and Louis Armstrong Stadium at the U.S. Open. I only included days in the tournament when both men’s and women’s singles matches were scheduled on more than one court — generally through the fourth round or quarterfinals, until the early or middle part of the second week of the tournament. I didn’t count walkovers. And I counted matches based on which court and day they started on. The websites of the Australian Open, French Open and U.S. Open don’t list total minutes of the match, so I added the minutes for each set. Any slight differences with official stats shouldn’t affect comparisons between men and women. For one French Open match that had no times listed, I estimated time based on the average time each point took in the other women’s singles matches that day.Who gets on which court is up to tournament schedulers. The top players want to play on a Grand Slam’s two main courts, which each have more than 10,000 seats. That’s where the most fans get to watch them and where journalists and broadcasters focus their attention. For the first week and a half or so of each two-week event, organizers must decide how to allocate that valuable real estate to matches from the men’s and women’s singles competitions.Counting matches understates the extent to which men’s tennis has hogged the spotlight at Wimbledon this year. Men’s matches, on average, take longer because men play best-of-five-sets while women play best-of-three at Slams. As a result, women got just 28 percent of match time on the top two courts at Wimbledon, compared with 39 percent to 42 percent at the other three majors. read more

  • Significant Digits For Friday March 25 2016

    0.015 rating pointsThere are close matchups, and then there are close matchups. Tonight’s Notre Dame-Wisconsin tilt belongs in that second category, with the teams separated by just 0.015 points in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. It’s basically as close to a coin flip as you can get — our prediction model lists the game as exactly 50-50 for both teams. [Kenpom.com]19 percentage pointsIn a Sweet 16 field largely devoid of Cinderella candidates, 10th-seeded Syracuse will have to do. According to the FiveThirtyEight model, they started the tourney with a 1 percent chance of making the Final Four; now that probability is 19 percentage points higher, the biggest gain of any team left standing. [FiveThirtyEight]1995 seasonThe University of Virginia will be looking to make its first Elite 8 appearance since the 1995 tournament when it takes on Iowa State Friday evening. By most measures — including winning percentage, the AP poll and the Simple Rating System — this year’s Cavaliers are better than the 1995 version, but they’ll have to win to prove it — the bracket doesn’t lie. [Sports-Reference.com]3,950 winsNorth Carolina and Indiana are two of the most storied programs in the history of college basketball, having combined for 3,950 victories in 5,728 games since 1901, and they’ll face each other in Friday’s late game. With a 73 percent chance of winning, UNC has the edge to take win No. 3,951, according to our model. [Sports-Reference.com]118 winsThe University of Connecticut women’s basketball team has been completely unstoppable with Breanna Stewart leading the way these past few seasons. They’ve won 118 of their last 119 games — all by double-digits, and all but 18 by 20 or more points. UConn looks to extend their run against Mississippi State Saturday morning. [FiveThirtyEight]If you haven’t already, you really need to sign up for the Significant Digits newsletter — be the first to learn about the numbers behind the news.And if you see a significant digit in the wild, send it to @WaltHickey — or to @Neil_Paine, I guess, if you feel like it. Welcome to Significant Digits, a daily digest of the telling numbers tucked inside the news. Regular host Walt Hickey is still on vacation, and NCAA basketball is still happening. As a result, I’m still here with another all-March Madness SigDig. Enjoy! read more